本研究經模型的實證，發現平板電腦與NB兩產品的擴散狀態是口碑行銷的影響較大，且分析產品的關鍵多數(Critical mass)後，平板電腦比NB較早達到關鍵多數，也就表示採用人數擴張的速度也比NB來的快。另外，從2010平板電腦的加入，NB的銷售量就開始受到牽動。觀看2010~2011近兩年NB的銷售量都未有突破性的成長，呈現上下波動的走勢，產品市場的重疊已開始蠶食 NB出貨量，顯然市場已開始出現排擠效應。
關鍵字：平板電腦(Tablet PC)、擴散模型(Diffusion Model)
Driven by the growing popularity of Apple iPad, Tablet PC industry grew tremendously in 2010. 18.82 million Tablet PCs were sold in 2010. More than 100 million Tablet PCs are expected to be sold in 2012, equaling to 30% of NB to be sold in the same year. For NB industry, the growing popularity of tablet PC is definitely a threat. NB manufacturers are therefore forced to adjust their product strategies in order to maintain their market share.
There is no doubt that innovation stimulates consumption. As long as consumers accept Table PC, the market will definitely grow. Therefore, this study attempted to identify the innovation and diffusion of Tablet PC using Bass Diffusion Model to forecast and analyze the sales. At the time that Tablet PC and NB are rivaling in the market, Tablet PC is expected to remain popular in the short-term and will dominate the computer market as time passes by. Therefore, this study focused on the substitutability between Tablet PC and NB in order to find out if Tablet PC has any chance to replace NB in the future and becomes the dominant computer in the next generation.
Based on the evidence obtained from empirical research, this study found that word-of-mouth influenced the diffusion of Tablet PC and NB. Secondly, this study concluded that Tablet PC met the criteria of critical mass earlier than NB. In other words, the number of tablet PC users grows faster than that of NB users. Thirdly, NB sales began to change after Tablet PC was introduced to the market in 2010. NB sales rose and fell in 2010~2011 with no sign of steady growth at all. As a result, NB sales started to decrease. In other words, the crowding-out effect has emerged during the rivalry between Tablet PC and NB.
Key words: Tablet PC, diffusion model